Election Day 2008

The Iraq War, should we stay or should we go?

I was talking with a 20 year old today about the Iraq War. She has friends and family members who are in the military and she says they believe we should be in Iraq fighting this war. She also shared their view. The only reason she gave in support of the war however was that, "it should not be in vain". I have heard this argument before often from families of soldiers and every time I hear this it bugs me. It's an emotional response, a knee jerk reaction without reason. I tried to explain to her that there are a number of arguments in support of the US being in Iraq but to offer as a reason that we don't want to upset the feelings of some of the soldiers and their families is not a good reason. I asked her if it made sense that hundreds or thousands more should die, including possibly her friends and family members, so that some would not be upset if the war ended without victory. I asked her should not the reason for fighting a war or in this case to stay in the war be based on the merits of war itself? That is, do the benefits of being in the war outweigh the costs? I likened her reasoning to someone driving down a road for many hours only to discover they were going in the wrong direction, and then instead of turning around making the decision to continue down the same road in the wrong direction thinking that since they had invested hours in this direction they didn't want it to be in vain.

The subject of the war had come up because of a conversation about the upcoming election. The young woman was under the firm belief that Obama would pull us out of Iraq immediately in some reckless manner. I asked her where she heard that and she said Fox News. I suggested her information was incorrect and that she might try some other news source such The NYT or The WP at which point she said she was too busy for such things. She does however have time to vote.

If the 20 year old had been interested, I would have told her that 63% of Americans (Gallop, April 2008) now believe the Iraq War is a mistake. This number, by the way, is higher than any number for the Vietnam War. At no point during that war did opposition break 61% (Gallop). I must say that surprises me. I can remember the 1972 election between Nixon and George McGovern (I was a kid). Nixon said he would end the war "with honor." He would not just pull us out but it would be done gradually giving the South Vietnamese a chance to handle things themselves. McGovern on the other hand ran an anti-war campaign. Does any of this sound familiar?

So where exactly does Obama stand on the getting out of the war? I thought it was common knowledge that early on he gave a time table of sixteen months. Of course it's more complicated than that. In fact some progressives now find issue with Obama's position:

Obama's Iraq plan has always left the door open for what could become an "occupation of undetermined length" under a Democratic President. Even as he rejects permanent US military bases in Iraq, Obama has said that no timetable should be "overly rigid." He has indicated that he would "work with our military commanders" to determine a withdrawal plan. He has supported the presence of residual troops, which could number as many as 80,000, to guard a militarized embassy, combat terrorism and provide training and assistance to the Iraqi government.

And what is the cost of the war so far?

4,503 Military casualties - source

30,634 Wounded (as of September 2008) – source

Iraqi Civilian Fatalities 151,000 (as of January 2008) – source

And the economic cost? Former White House chief economist Lawrence Lindsey who was let go by President Bush for presumably speaking the truth about the cost of the war wrote:

The bill for Iraq over the past five years is now approaching a cumulative $500 billion, or about $100 billion per year on average. My hypothetical estimate got the annual cost about right, but I misjudged an important factor: how long we would be involved. As we approach the fifth anniversary of the start of the war, it's worth making a new appraisal of where we are going with this investment. Is the war's total cost going to run into the trillions of dollars, as some economists have asserted? Are those numbers meaningful in terms of what to do next? If we stick around to finish the job, are we throwing good money after bad?

One final point, I could tell the 20 year old was thinking that since I’m not in the military (nor have I ever been) I don’t understand or I’m not sympathetic to military personnel. It is a valid point. I’m not in the military so I don’t have the same perspective. But it doesn’t mean I’m not sympathetic or that I don’t care about our soldiers. While I have not served both of my grandfathers, my father and his brother and my mother all served. I believe strongly in supporting and honoring our veterans. I believe wanting a war that I consider to be a mistake to end is not unpatriotic. It is important that voices speaking out against wars otherwise we would be in many more conflicts and those conflicts would last longer if not indefinitely. Voices of opposition provide needed balance.